Nigeria achieves trade surplus despite dipping export figures

Nigeria managed a merchandise trade surplus of ₦1.71 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics. While the surplus paints a positive picture, it arrives against a backdrop of softening trade activity, with total merchandise trade settling at ₦36.21 trillion. This figure represents a 1.07 per cent dip from the same period in 2024 and an 8.94 per cent drop compared to the third quarter of 2025, largely driven by a slowdown in export performance.

Exports made up 52.36 per cent of the total trade value at ₦18.96 trillion, while imports accounted for ₦17.25 trillion. Despite the surplus, export earnings have faced downward pressure, falling 5.25 per cent from ₦20.01 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 16.88 per cent from the ₦22.81 trillion recorded in the preceding quarter.

Crude oil continues to be the bedrock of Nigeria’s export strategy, generating ₦9.70 trillion and accounting for over half of all export value. Following crude oil were other petroleum products, which contributed ₦6.12 trillion, while agricultural goods and raw materials brought in ₦1.32 trillion and ₦1.19 trillion, respectively. Contributions from manufactured goods, solid minerals, and energy goods remained smaller by comparison.

On the import side, manufactured goods dominated the landscape, totaling ₦8.80 trillion and representing over 51 per cent of all imports. Other petroleum products were the second-largest import category at ₦4.02 trillion, with raw materials and agricultural goods contributing ₦2.35 trillion and ₦1.44 trillion. Smaller import figures were recorded for crude oil, solid minerals, and energy goods, rounding out the nation’s trade profile for the final quarter of the year.

While a trade surplus of ₦1.71 trillion suggests resilience, it masks a concerning trend: Nigeria is recording a “surplus” not through robust economic expansion, but through the contraction of total trade activity. The double-digit decline in export earnings, primarily driven by volatility and underperformance in the crude oil sector, highlights the fragility of an economy that remains tethered to a single commodity. When total trade volume shrinks alongside exports, it signals that the nation’s primary engine of foreign exchange is faltering, rather than maturing into a diverse, multi-sector power. This reliance keeps Nigeria perpetually vulnerable to external shocks, as the lack of deep, value-added exports means that domestic industry remains starved of the very resources and stability needed to move beyond the “resource curse” and break its dependence on volatile oil markets.